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Predicting MMA

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jojoclown777
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Predicting MMA

Postby jojoclown777 » Mar 9. 2009, 00:14

Ok, so what helps predict who will win MMA fights?

Is it a difference between strength? Jiujitsu? Striking? Wrestling? Endurance? Experience? Last fight? Etc.


There are a lot of criteria. I'm reading a book right now (Gut Feelings: The Intelligence of the Unconscious - Gerd Gigerenzer) and it's fucking INSANE. It shows that amateurs and lay-people are able to predict sporting events (and tons of other shit - including the stock market!) way better than experts in the field. The reason is because they use simple heuristics and that's it. They use less information and are therefore better able to predict stuff.


So here are my questions:
1. Would lay people be better able to pick winners of fights better than experts?

2. What criteria are the most important for predicting fights?

kusok
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Postby kusok » Mar 9. 2009, 00:17

It's very easy to pick any fight correctly!

Simply find out whom Bongtokes and Lost have picked to win. Then pick the other guy. He will win, because Bong and Lost know **** about MMA.

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Postby Frank_The_Tank » Mar 9. 2009, 00:34

ha kusoks awesome...
There is not way to determine who is going to win or lose an mma fight but i will say this ...
If fedor is fight, bet on him.....
he always wins :D
Fav fighters: Gsp , Fedor , Alexander E. , Cro Cop , Gonzaga , Penn , Anderson Sylva , Wanderlei , BIG NOG ,
and remember kids....
Just because you watch alot of mma and are a member on many mma forums doesnt mean you can fight like an mma star;)

bannedcity

Postby bannedcity » Mar 9. 2009, 01:44

Oh look, another post by kusok where he mentions me for no reason.

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Postby kusok » Mar 9. 2009, 02:04

Some guidelines (serious)

1- Listen to the Mental Game in pre-fight talks, and look for patterns!

For example:
Tito said about Machida: "He will be huge in UFC, but not now"
Gonzaga's coach said the same thing about Shane Carwin...
It's obvious from the language they used that they were both scared of, AND underestimated their opponents.
The correct pre-fight attitude would be: "Machida (or Carwin) ARE big in UFC already, and I will do my best to beat this worthy opponent.
By dismissing Machida's chances Tito showed that he underestimated Machida, and by claiming Machida will be great in UFC shows that Tito was scared of machida's talent.


2- Style match-ups!
This one is self-explanatory.
For example:
Mark Hunt is a bad match-up for Crocop, while Barnett is a bad match-up for Hunt, and finally Crocop easily rapes barnett :) A love triangle...


3- Don't bet against undefeated fresh fighters who haven't taken heavy hits. they are fresh, they can afford to eat some punches and they will still win.
And bet against those who recently have lost, and especially have been KOd (It is said that after a KO loss a fighter should not even spar for 6 months in an ideal world)


4- Don't bet against well rounded fighters, fighters who have many varied weapons, so that if one fails they got another (Fedor, GSP, machida, Rashad etc)


5- If someone takes a fight on short notice VS an unknown fighter who is looking great on youtube, the youtube guy will win :)



etc

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Postby MMA_Addicted » Mar 9. 2009, 03:54

I definitely agree with some of what Kusok is saying... as for myself, yes, pre-fight mentality (if available... some fighters aren't big enough names to have their own pre-fight hype machine video), recent performances- it's really hard to bet against someone who's been on a tear lately. Style contrasts- the rock paper scissors that kusok mentioned :lol: , which is probably the most important factor... but also age, when fighters start to hit the late 30s it can be downhill from there for many of them. ...even the arena they fight in.... Some fighters are just more comfortable in a cage, and some in a ring, and if you know a bit of their history and which they have always fought in, that can be a factor. And yes, I've learned to bet on the up-and coming undefeateds a bit more... that's what I did with Carwin, and to be quite honest with you, I had never even seen Carwin fight before his win over Gonzaga. But I heard very good things :)

And yet, while there can be many, many things that could potentially sway the outcome of the match, it is still never a sure bet. The "Puncher's Chance" is still a factor for any underdog in any fight, and good BJJ underdogs have just as good of a chance as the punchers too, from what I've seen.

Also- usually when you have some pretty one-dimensional fighters against each other, who have serious deficiencies in their striking or their ground game... bet on the grappler over the striker. I've always bet on the good ground fighter and come out on top most of the time.

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Postby dasheeznit » Mar 9. 2009, 04:28

i would say something.. but i was 6-4 :oops:
Think local, act global -Bj Penn

[b]“Bate na minha cara playboy” (“Come on, hit me in the face playboy.”)[/b] -Anderson Silva UFC 112

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Postby el magico » Mar 9. 2009, 14:03

If you ever talk to an experienced referee then they will tell you that 9 times out of 10 that they could predict who will win.

Most fighters who lose beat themselves before they start by either not training enough or with their head screwed up.

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Postby hepponen_kepponen » Mar 9. 2009, 14:24

kusok wrote:Some guidelines (serious)

Good points.

However, one factor which has not yet been mentioned and which complicates things a bit are fixed fights. Of course, many times you are able to guess in which way they will fix it (e.g. Chuck vs. Wanderlei), but sometimes it is not clear.

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Postby The Black Dragon » Mar 9. 2009, 14:55

Watch and observe how each fighter fights to gauge their strengths and weaknesses; Look at their W/L record and more importantly, how they win and lose; Hope your good at guessing.

Thats how I do it anyway :?
"What is best in life?"

"To crush your enemies, to see them driven before you, and to hear the lamentations of their women."

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Postby kusok » Mar 9. 2009, 15:21

I remember a Sherdog poster who posted something like this in the Tim Sylvia-Fedor prediction thread:

Fedor will time Tim, and then jumpin with his right cross fake/left hook combo and go after Tim with the aggression that can not be trained for. After he drops Tim he will quickly sub him.


My jaw literally dropped after the fight when i remembered that post...


Knowledge is power. People who are good at picking know MMA, they train, they watch many fights, they understand, study, learn daily, and observe the MMA game.


The "swarmer beats boxer, boxer beats puncher, and puncher beats swarmer" applies to MMA as well as to boxing very much! (For example Rampage > Liddell > Shogun > Rampage etc)
http://how-to-box.com/boxing/boxing_styles

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Postby jojoclown777 » Mar 9. 2009, 16:29

kusok wrote:Fedor will time Tim, and then jumpin with his right cross fake/left hook combo and go after Tim with the aggression that can not be trained for. After he drops Tim he will quickly sub him.


My jaw literally dropped after the fight when i remembered that post...


While that's cool, it's also bullshit. Anyone can make a jaw-dropping prediction at any given moment. If that guy made predictions like that 60% of the time (above chance), I would give him props. Human predictions (as opposed to computers) tend to be weak.


Knowledge is power. People who are good at picking know MMA, they train, they watch many fights, they understand, study, learn daily, and observe the MMA game.


Actually, I'm predicting the exact opposite. I'm saying that because of all of their knowledge, they get bogged down. The same effect has been shown with tennis, soccer, stock markets, etc. Basically, the more information you have, the worse your predictions become. Now I have to figure out how to compile data on all of this stuff. (Then run various multivariate statistical analyses like "multiple regression," and "exploratory factor analysis.").

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Re: Predicting MMA

Postby Annaa123 » Oct 31. 2017, 07:42

Thanks for the tips


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